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1996 SESSION


HOUSE JOINT RESOLUTION NO. 128
Directing the Virginia State Crime Commission to study and evaluate the methodology used to project Virginia's prison population.

Agreed to by the House of Delegates, February 23, 1996
Agreed to by the Senate, February 21, 1996

WHEREAS, there exists a great concern among the people of the Commonwealth about the rate of violent crime and the impact it has on their lives; and

WHEREAS, in the 1994 Special Session of the General Assembly, new guidelines were adopted for the adjudication and punishment of those who commit a crime in the Commonwealth, especially those who choose violence; and

WHEREAS, with the significant policy changes embodied in the new sentencing guidelines and abolition of parole, there comes an enhanced need to assess the actual effect of these policies in order to ensure that prisons and ancillary programs are available; and

WHEREAS, if needs are over-projected or under-projected, the dollar cost and/or the costs in human suffering to potential crime victims are considerable; and

WHEREAS, in 1988, the Department of Corrections first instituted a computer simulation forecast program tracking 120 components to more accurately forecast prison populations, and the Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission will use a computer simulation forecast program to conduct an assessment of the impact of all proposed legislation on correctional resource needs as directed by the 1995 Session of the General Assembly; and

WHEREAS, in recent years, computer-generated forecasts and assumptions have been reviewed by an informal group of representatives from the various affected agencies and departments, including local law-enforcement and corrections officials, the State Police, the Department of Criminal Justice Services, the Department of Corrections, the Department of Youth and Family Services, the Supreme Court, the Parole Board, the Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission, and staff representatives from the House Committee on Appropriations and the Senate Committee on Finance; and

WHEREAS, there are numerous components of a comprehensive simulation program, including crime, arrest, and prosecution rates for various types of crimes; guidelines emulation and judicial compliance; rates of earned sentence credits; recidivism rates; and offender-mix distribution, all of which are part of accurately forecasting prison needs and are used to different degrees in various computer programs nationwide; and

WHEREAS, it may take as long as three years to bring prison space on-line from when the need is identified, and this will be increased if there is no confidence in the actual projected need; now, therefore, be it

RESOLVED by the House of Delegates, the Senate concurring, That the Virginia State Crime Commission be directed to study and evaluate the methodology used to project Virginia's prison population. The Commission shall evaluate current methodologies used to project Virginia's prison population, including, but not limited to, historic accuracy, legislative involvement in projection assumptions, comparisons of the computer programs or methodology used by other states, projection horizon, timeliness, oversight, and recommendations for improvements.

The Commission shall conduct the study in collaboration with the Department of Criminal Justice Services, which shall also provide technical assistance for the study, including any projections, models, forecasting methodologies, and such other data and information as the Commission may require. Further, during the course of its deliberations, the Commission shall consult with the Commission on Youth, the Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission, the Departments of Corrections and Youth and Family Services, and any other agencies and entities with the expertise to assist in the study. All agencies of the Commonwealth shall provide assistance to the Commission, upon request.

The Commission shall complete its work in time to submit its findings and recommendations to the Governor and the 1997 Session of the General Assembly as provided in the procedures of the Division of Legislative Automated Systems for the processing of legislative documents.